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Sector deep dive · Fall 2026
Electric + Gas Stakeholder Risk Outlook
Electric and gas utilities are entering a period of expansion under constraint.
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The result is a stakeholder environment in which planning assumptions, cost allocation and local impacts matter almost as much as the technical case for the investment itself.
Executive read
Expansion under constraint
Electric and gas utilities are planning for rapid load growth, reliability investment, transmission, wildfire mitigation and aging infrastructure at the same time affordability is becoming more politically visible. 1234
For electric utilities, the central stakeholder question is increasingly who finances growth and how confidently future demand can be forecast. For gas utilities, the question is how to continue necessary safety investment while some jurisdictions reconsider the long-term role and economics of the system. 567
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Priority pressures
Where stakeholder pressure is concentrating
Five issues rank as the sector's primary near-term pressures, with gas-system reinvestment and transition on the watchlist.
02
Large-load cost allocation and forecast credibility
03
Reliability and resource adequacy under load growth
04
Wildfire liability, mitigation and PSPS
05
Transmission and generation siting
Watch
Gas-system reinvestment and transition
Sector analysis
Six issues shaping the outlook
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Affordability is moving beyond the rate case
Electric and gas utilities requested $18.6 billion in rate increases during the first half of 2026 while household arrears remain high. The political implications are also becoming more visible, with utility affordability entering statewide electoral debates. For communications teams, that means a rate filing cannot be explained only as an incremental request; customers experience the cumulative bill. 1834
02
Large-load growth is changing the cost-recovery conversation
Data centers and other large loads are pushing utilities and regulators to decide how long-lived infrastructure risk should be allocated when future demand is uncertain. Special tariffs, minimum commitments, collateral and exit protections are spreading. The strongest stakeholder concern is not simply growth, but whether existing customers could be left carrying costs if expected demand changes. 91011125136
03
Reliability is becoming a planning-credibility issue
The immediate U.S. reliability outlook improved in summer 2026, but longer-term assessments still point to rapid peak-demand growth and resource-adequacy pressure. Regional capacity outcomes are making those planning issues more visible to governors and customers. Utilities need to distinguish current operating conditions from the infrastructure challenge developing over the next several years. 21415
04
Wildfire remains a test of competing expectations
Wildfire-exposed utilities are expected to prevent ignitions, limit public-safety shutoffs, protect medically vulnerable customers and keep mitigation and liability costs manageable. Those objectives can conflict. The stakeholder test is whether the overall strategy appears to balance safety, continuity and affordability reasonably. 1617
05
Transmission becomes harder when benefits are regional and impacts are local
Large regional transmission portfolios can support reliability and economic goals while individual landowners, tribes and municipalities experience the route-level burden. Procedural fairness, meaningful consultation and clear explanation of route alternatives become central to project delivery as projects move from planning maps to parcels. 1819
06
Gas-system investment is becoming a lifecycle question
Gas utilities still need to replace aging mains and manage safety risk. In some states, however, customers and advocates are asking how much additional long-lived investment is appropriate if the customer base changes over time. Safety remains necessary, but stakeholders may also expect evidence that alternatives, utilization and intergenerational cost allocation were considered. 7
Stakeholder pressure map
Who is shaping the risk environment
The organizations and groups below do not have uniform positions, but they represent the stakeholder categories most likely to shape the sector's risk environment over the next 6–12 months.
| Stakeholder | Primary pressure |
|---|---|
| Residential customers | Bills, reliability, arrears, wildfire mitigation costs and whether large customers are paying their share. |
| Regulators and consumer advocates | Forecast credibility, rate design, cost allocation, performance and affordability protections. |
| State policymakers | Reliability, economic development, utility bills and the political visibility of regional market outcomes. |
| Local governments and host communities | Siting, land use, construction impacts, community benefit and local infrastructure demand. |
| Tribal governments and property owners | Consultation, route impacts, land rights, compensation and procedural fairness. |
| Large-load customers and developers | Speed to service, tariff predictability, interconnection milestones and cancellation obligations. |
| Emergency partners and critical facilities | PSPS coordination, outage notification, restoration and backup-service dependencies. |
Signals we're watching
What would indicate the pressure is hardening
These signals are forward-looking indicators that would suggest stakeholder pressure is becoming more durable, more formalized or more difficult to manage.
Large-load tariffs become standard
Escalation indicator
More PUCs require separate classes, minimum bills, collateral or exit fees.
Forecast audits enter rate cases
Escalation indicator
Regulators require project-by-project probability weighting or independent audits.
Regional power-market costs become an affordability narrative
Escalation indicator
Governors or legislatures intervene more directly in market design and procurement.
Transmission opposition moves from planning to parcels
Escalation indicator
Route hearings, property disputes and tribal consultation become the pacing issue.
Wildfire funding faces a legitimacy test
Escalation indicator
Another major event renews debate over ratepayer, shareholder and insurer responsibility.
Gas reinvestment becomes a stranded-asset proceeding
Escalation indicator
A major commission limits replacement or reallocates exit costs to remaining customers.
For communications leaders
What the outlook means in practice
Make forecast maturity visible
Distinguish inquiries, executed agreements, construction and energized load. That vocabulary is becoming central to credibility.
Build the beneficiary case alongside the capital case
Explain which customers drive an investment, how broader system benefits were evaluated and what protections exist if demand changes.
Treat siting engagement as part of project planning
Route and land-use decisions create stakeholder conditions long before a public announcement.
Prepare for cross-institution accountability
Large-load, regional-market, wildfire and siting issues often involve utilities, regulators, developers and government agencies. Roles need to be clear before controversy.
Do not overstate reliability risk
A stronger near-term outlook and a more difficult long-term planning environment can both be true.
Strategic support for regulated industries
Navigate stakeholder pressure with the right advisory support.
ARTÉMIA advises organizations operating in complex, high-scrutiny environments on stakeholder engagement, community outreach, digital marketing, media planning and buying, strategic communications, public relations and crisis and issues management.
Methodology & evidence
How this outlook was built
This outlook draws from the same evidence base used for the ARTÉMIA Utilities Stakeholder Risk Index, narrowed to stakeholder pressures most relevant to electric and gas utilities.
Methodology
Research covers developments from Sept. 1, 2025 through Sept. 2, 2026, with additional weight given to 2026 developments and issues likely to remain consequential over the next 6–12 months.
The analysis focuses on issues where utility priorities, operating constraints or infrastructure decisions are likely to create meaningful pressure from customers, regulators, policymakers, communities, advocates, commercial users or other stakeholders. It is not a ranking of technical failure probability or financial exposure alone.
Risks were assessed on:
- Breadth of stakeholder exposure
- Regulatory and political intensity
- Public visibility and narrative volatility
- Potential operational or project-delivery consequence
- Geographic spread
- Evidence that pressure is accelerating
- Likelihood that the issue persists over the next 6–12 months
Direction, confidence & source approach
Increasing indicates strengthening political, regulatory, customer or community pressure. Stable indicates persistent structural exposure without clear recent acceleration. Declining indicates immediate pressure appears to be easing even if the underlying issue remains. Confidence reflects the strength and breadth of the available evidence.
Primary regulatory and government sources were prioritized where available, supplemented by industry organizations, reputable trade and national media and clearly attributed stakeholder or advocacy positions. Major conclusions were not based on a single incident or duplicated coverage of the same event.
Private companies or utilities are generally not named when an adverse incident or controversy is used only to illustrate a broader stakeholder pattern. Regulators, public agencies, regional systems, legislation and public programs are named where necessary to understand the issue.
Research cautions
The analysis distinguishes emerging stakeholder disputes from established causal claims. The evidence supports increasing concern over large-load cost allocation and forecast uncertainty, but not a blanket conclusion that every data center raises residential rates.
It also distinguishes a stronger near-term reliability outlook from the longer-term planning pressure associated with load growth and slower infrastructure delivery. 101112215
Source notes 19 sources
- PowerLines. Utilities Request $18.6 Billion in Rate Increases in First Half of 2026.
- North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). Record Resource Additions Strengthen Summer Reliability Outlook.
- POLITICO. Georgia utility affordability and Public Service Commission elections.
- Colorado Politics. Record utility rate requests hit $9.2 billion nationwide in Q2 2026.
- Utility Dive. New Jersey data-center tariff legislation and large-load protections.
- RMI. Planning for Uncertain Data Center Demand.
- CommonWealth Beacon. Gas utilities and leak-prone pipe replacement spending.
- National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA). Summer cooling costs and household electric-bill debt update.
- ArentFox Schiff. State Regulation of Data Centers in 2026: A Shifting Landscape.
- Energy + Environmental Economics (E3). Understanding the Drivers of Rising Electricity Rates and the Role of Data Centers.
- Utility Dive. Analysis of data-center growth, cost allocation and ratepayer exposure.
- Harvard Law School Today. How data centers may lead to higher electricity bills.
- Office of the Governor of Virginia. 2026 legislation addressing large-load infrastructure cost protections.
- Reuters. PJM capacity auction pricing and reliability procurement, July 2026.
- POWER Magazine. NERC warns long-term grid reliability risks are mounting.
- Nossaman. California wildfire policy, liability and mitigation framework.
- California Public Utilities Commission. Public Safety Power Shutoff consumer guidance.
- MISO. Long Range Transmission Planning.
- Utility Dive. FERC complaint involving MISO transmission portfolio.
Closing perspective
Affordability, reliability and growth are increasingly evaluated together.
Electric and gas utilities will continue making difficult capital and operating decisions in this environment. The organizations best positioned to maintain stakeholder confidence will be those that can make planning assumptions visible, explain cost allocation clearly and engage affected communities before infrastructure decisions become difficult to change.
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